NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Week 2 Survivor Pool strategy, previewing the safest picks of the week as well as possible upsets.

NFL Week 2 Survivor Strategy and Picks

In traditional survivor pools, participants are required to select a winner of one NFL game straight-up each week. In eliminator tournaments, the rules are more challenging – allowing participants to use a team only one time throughout the course of the regular season. In 2023, this means that participants will need to select 18 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season. Consequently, there will be weeks when you will not be able to select an elite roster with a favorable matchup.

Each week in this RotoGrinders article, we will identify one trustworthy favorite and pick one favorite that is on upset alert. During the first nine weeks of last season, four of our teams that were on upset alert lost outright, despite all of those teams being favored by at least one score at the time of writing.

Below, we have our list of red flags to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid six contexts when choosing your team:

1. Intra-division games
2. Primetime games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week

Trust this team in Week 2: Dallas Cowboys

Week 1 Trust this team: Baltimore Ravens (Result: Won 25-9 against the Houston Texans)

First things first – the New York Jets are not the worst team in the NFL simply because they lost to a season-ending Achilles injury. In Week 1, the Jets still managed to defeat the Buffalo Bills, a team many pundits have penciled into the Super Bowl, 22-16 in overtime. However, the way in which the Jets won that football game is not a recipe for sustained success.

On Monday Night Football, the Bills committed four turnovers, which allowed the Jets to win despite being outgained by 25 yards for the contest. Even more noteworthy, 83 of New York’s 289 yards of total offense came on a single play – a rush attempt from deep in his own territory. Though Hall has elite speed and is one of the premier playmakers in the NFL, 83-yard rush attempts are extremely rare, even for the most talented players in the game.

According to PFF, had a 4.2% turnover-worthy play rate in the season opener, in relief of . Wilson was serviceable from a clean pocket, completing 10-of-13 throws for 86 passing yards. Yet, he was only 4-of-8 when under pressure. His 4.6 aDOT is a firm indication that the coaching staff does not fully trust him to make throws downfield, which ultimately will make his life even more difficult on plays near the line of scrimmage against better defenses.

The Dallas Cowboys had seven sacks, six quarterback hits, and 26 hurries on only 39 dropbacks against the New York Giants in Week 1. Wilson is unlikely to thrive against such a tenacious defense in Week 2. The Jets might be able to cover a 10-point spread due to their stout defense, but an outright upset on the road is highly unlikely in this spot.

Week 2 Survivor Fade: Buffalo Bills

Week 1 Fade: Kansas City Chiefs (Result: Lost 21-20 against the Detroit Lions)

The Buffalo Bills catch two of our red flags in Week – 1) They have a net rest disadvantage against the Las Vegas Raiders; 2) They are on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football to open the season.

Though is consistently derided for his perceived limitations, he has a 20-10 record across his last 30 games played and continues to be the consummate professional in the pocket. In Week 1, he had the 4th-highest EPA/play of any quarterback in the NFL in a win over the Denver Broncos on the road. Even more impressive, the Broncos are one of the better defenses in the league.

has committed 37 turnovers in his last 19 games played and seemingly has no ability to curb his own reckless decision-making. Against the New York Jets, Allen simply needed to avoid costly turnovers to lead his team to victory, but instead threw three interceptions (nearly four) and lost a fumble late in the game, which led to points for the Jets.

Buffalo’s defense is nowhere near as good as it was at the beginning of 2022, with Von Miller on the field. The linebacker corps is sorely missing Tremaine Edmunds and the secondary unit is thinner than many people realize. Assuming there are no surprised absences for the Raiders on the injury report, they are a live dog in Week 2.

Image Credit: Getty Images

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